Small sad entry

In the interesting of not turning this into another long whine, I'll keep my Fitz Winter Fest report short.

Played three of the one table STTs, including a one hand blind Omaha one, with no joy. In one, I lost a crucial race 4 handed, 8's v AK, the ace rivering a wheel, effectively for the ticket (I'd have had over 80% of the chips). In the blind Omaha, I actually chose the winning seat when we all sat down, but it was decided we'd draw for seats, and I didn't draw the winning seat.

In the ME, I took a big hit early to Donal Norton when we both flopped a set, but was lucky the ultimate scare card hit the river so I got away with losing less than half my stack. Recovered from that early setback and worked up to about 30K before losing another race, blind on blind, against Kevin Fitz. He has the two overs and rivered an ace.

Had worked back up to about 26K when I got it all in preflop with aces against ace king. When I saw his hand, I actually said the dreaded words "I've lost the last two of these". King on the flop, another on the river, and I was effectively crippled. Went out shoving a medium ace on the button into a bigger one in the BB. Another kick in the guts but running bad for a prolonged period is probably part of the learning curve. As I said before, I feel like I've been running bad since May when I lost with AK v AQ aipf on the final table on JP's Irish Masters. But that's maybe taking too small a view of luck, purely in terms of losing key big hands with the bigger hand.

Good luck to all left in, especially Ozzie with whom I swapped a percentage. He played brilliantly as ever yesterday.

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Fitz EOM: I play sooo bad, no, wait, maybe not

Played the Fitz EOM on Thursday and had my earliest ever exit despite virtually doubling up early on. I then doubled down when I ran trip aces into a house, then lost a few more pots to be drifting towards short, and finally went out calling an allin on with 87 on a 7 high board. So I came out feeling it was maybe probably almost certainly the worst poker I ever played. People at the table were calling my exit hand the worst call ever, but given the villain and the presence of both flush and straight draws I had to think there was at least a 50% chance he was drawing, and even if he had the well disguised overpair (which he had: limped aces) I had 5 outs twice. That adds up to about 40% equity on the call, way more than I needed (was getting over 2 to 1).

I felt it was the right call, and did take my time over it rather than snap petulant call, but my confidence is a bit shaken as I'm running so bad at the moment both on and offline that I had to wonder if my game was bad right now too. I went through all the big hands with my usual mentors and peers afterwards, and apart from one pointless (but relatively minor) turn bet, it seems like I played all the hands correctly. That's not to say I played well though: I made the strategic mistake of playing too many hands. Every so often I whip out my Plan B, Hyper LAG game, but experience suggests I'm either doing it wrong (which I think I am in part: not that I misplay hands but that I fail to adjust to my table image being very different from my normal one) or it's fundamentally not a good strategy in Irish tournaments (which is true in part too, I think).

Playing the Fitz WinterFest today and hoping to run a bit better. Let's all cheer for the guy moaning about running bad in a year when he's won the European Deepstack, FTed half a dozen other events, and second last tabled two GUKPTs, yeah!

No joy for Rob or Nicky unfortunately in London. Rob was texting me updates all day. Nothing seems to have gone his way but he did everything he could in the circumstances to last until near the end of play. That's all you can do, and Rob can always be counted on to do it.

I've been stunned by the number of nominations this blog has been getting for a Boardsie, considering it started out as a vent spot for bad beats and moans in general not meant for public consumption, and has never really progressed past self indulgent twaddle content, and long winded self indulgent twaddle at that. What's wrong with you all? Seriously.

More seriously, I am of course thrilled as much as surprised that quite a few people seem to enjoy my dribblings. As ever, the warmth and interest of others is both welcome and surprising. But for God's sake cop yerselves on and vote for Willie Yuletired or El Stuntman or Rounders's blog when the voting begins.

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One of these days I'll win a race again

Went to Malahide last night, originally thinking it was their 270 Monthly game but actually their 110 weekly game. Fun tournament as ever in a very nice atmosphere and the best cappucino in Ireland made by the most beautiful hostess. I never got going and barely won a pot, drifting back into the pushfest after the break. Treaded water for a while with some pushes that got through, then a guy limping about 80% of hands limped again from MP, I decided ATs on the button was miles ahead of his range (almost 2 to 1 according to PokerStove) and shipped. I knew I had little or no fold equity as I'd already seen the guy call in a similar spot with KJo and Q3 sooted: most of the positive EV from this shove came from his willingness to call that light. Unfortunately he actually had something of a hand in this case: pocket 6's, but with my stack and urgent need for chips, I was quite happy to take a race at that point with the blinds providing overlay. Until I lost it anyway.

Rob and Cat both made the FT. Cat had a big stack but got unlucky, but still cashed in 5th, while Rob nursed a miniscule stack brilliantly to win outright. He made a couple of world class calls along the way, one with A9 in the SB after the BB reshipped with, it turned out, A8, and one headsup with fifth pair crap kicker. His performance underlined an idea that I've often had: that the edge of the better players increases almost exponentially the deeper you get into a tournament, so if you believe yourself to be one of those better players, you should do everything you can to survive to that point where others games start to crumble, even with a small stack (at least as long as the structure allows: you also need to know when to change gears).

Meanwhile, I was having a remarkably uneventful 3 hours at the cash table. I can't seem to get up for live cash at all, I just sit there intensely bored wishing I was in a tournament somewhere, but at least I seem to be getting better at it. I won precisely 4 hands and yet managed to finish over 2 buyins up despite getting only 2 decent hands worth playing. First hand I was playing junk (T8o) in late position because there was a drunk at the table paying people off and bluffing too much and I hit gin with TT2 and he went wild with K2. Next hand I flopped a baby flush playing 73s in the blinds and took the pot down with a check raise after a bet and a call. Third hand I won was multiway with a button raiser. Rags flopped, it's checked to him and he duly c-bets, everyone else folds and I decide my table image is good enough for a check raise bluff, and it is. Fourth hand: I pot it with QQ and am not to happy to have 4 callers, until the flop comes QTx. Checked round and I make a weakish less than half pot bet, and the last guy after a very long dwell calls. Turn's a brick and I bet a little less than half pot again and after an even longer dwell he folds AK. My night could have been even more profitable if I'd won the fifth big hand I was in when I got it all in on the turn only to be one outered on the river.

Still, a profitable night is a profitable night.

Played the online sat to Wexford on Bruce tonight with no joy. Started ok but with blinds rising I decided to make a move from the SB with A9 after the cutoff (who seemed very poor) limped for the umpteenth time. Again, A9 miles ahead of his limping range and with a shortie in BB wasn't too worried about him. As it was, he clearly woke up with a monster because he flatted for over half his stack, then the other guy shoved. I still think my A9 is probably good against him, he never has a hand after the initial limp, and in any case I'm getting over 3 to 1 on the call. BB has QQ, original limper has KQo which I'm obviously loving, until he hits a K to scoop. That effectively crippled me and I never recovered. Was wavering between playing this or Cavan the same weekend: I guess this tips the scales towards Cavan.

Oh well, sin e poker, a leanbh.

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Aces busted, busted aces, then unbusted

OK, SE Winter fest report. 44 runners which was more than I expected to be honest, very high quality field and I drew a tough table with Milly Uhlenbroek to my immediate left, Roy Brindley next to her, Russh next to him, then Noel Hayes and Paul Leckey. Noel got moved early on but the table didn't get any softer as Donal Norton arrived to replace him.

I played solidly and worked my stack up from 15k to 27200 over the 8 hours of play uneventfully, apart from one big hand shortly after Donal joined the table. Blinds were 200/400 and I raised to 1200 utg with KK. Donal called in the cutoff (I know he calls with a very wide range here), Paul Leckey called on the button (ditto - Paul likes suited connected hands in this spot), and the BB completed. Flop was 875 with 2 diamonds, I lead for 3K, both Donal and Paul called. Turn's a blank, a non diamond 2, and after a long dwell, I decide that my hand is probably still good but my opponents may have 20 or more outs between them (most likely situation being that one of them had a combination pair/draw hand and the other a draw and overcards) and with 15K in the middle now and only 13K left behind, I shoved to protect my hand. Donal snap folded and literally reared up from the table, while Paul said he'd really like to see the next card and after a ponder folded (he claimed) T9s. Donal appeared to be steaming a bit when he came back to the table and told me that if I'd checked the turn "you get all my chips" as he'd have pushed 99. That may or may not be true, assuming he didn't suck out, but I was quite happy to take the 15K pot down at that point.

I took a few hits on day 2 and was back to 13K before Sherman doubled me up. He raised AQ utg, called my shove, and my QQ held. I was up to 35K when I got it all in preflop with aces against Paul Leckey's Jacks, but a jack duly arrived on the turn to push me back down to 15K. If my aces had held, I'd have been in a great position.

I worked back up to 30K again thanks mainly to some hyper aggressive open shoving until my exit hand. Sherman open raised for the fourth or fifth pot in a row, I called on the button with 55, flop came down 852 all spades, he shoved, I snap called. When I flipped over my set his face dropped and he turned over aces. Unfortunately one of his aces was the spade, something I don't think he realised when he shoved. When he saw he had the spade he started calling for it. The turn was a non spade 4 (giving him additional outs but increasing me from 65 to 70% favourite) but the king of spades on the river sealed my fate. A cruel end to 13 hours of (I felt) some of the best poker I'd ever played against very challenging opposition and I just wanted to flee the scene. My mood wasn't helped by my opponent's dancing and whooping celebration in front of me either. People must get a real thrill out of seeing the back of me these days: rag2gar commented on his blog on the celebration that accompanied my exit last week from the Bruce main event, and this one was even more over the top.

A lot of people commiserated with me on the way out and I'm always bowled over at the genuine warmth there is on the Irish poker scene in these situations: I just wish I was a better loser and capable of more than the quickest exit out the door I can manage.

I normally get over these things quickly enough but this one seemed to hit me more than most. The gloom persisted when I woke up on Sunday feeling sorry for myself in full "Why do I run so bad?" mode. I don't want to turn this into a full scale whinge but....actually, scratch that, I do want this to turn into a full scale whinge so let's just go for it. It just seems at times like I've never run particularly well at any point in my poker career: even in Drogheda where I was said to have run like God, I only sucked out once (with an overpair v. top 2) and actually lost the two races I was involved in (of course, I did pick up some big hands at the right times, but if you sit and wait like I did for three days, they're always likely to eventually arrive). Since then, I went out of the Irish Open with AK busted/coolered by KJ, the Irish Masters FT ended when my AK was no good against AQ, I had 9's cracked by 78s on the second last table in the GUKPT Newcastle, I ran so bad in Vegas it wasn't funny (my main event ultimately unable to withstand four crushing bad beats), I had aces cracked 4 times and three flopped sets outdrawn in the Macau and now was outdrawn on the two big hands I was in when more than an 80% favourite in one and 65% in the other when the money went in.

My mood wasn't lifted when I signed on for the IO sat (never really got going, and pushed AKs into my nemesis hand, 55) in time to see Rob take a horrible bad beat in his step 6 on Stars (three way allin, effectively for the ticket, his KK v TT and K9). It's a very cruel game at times but as the brother always points out, the better a player you are, the more suckouts you're likely to have to endure (because you're getting your money in good more often). Being able to take them on the chin and come back is a big part of this game.

Haven't been playing online as much in the last week. These days I mostly seem to be using online to tweak or practise certain parts of my game. At the moment I'm mainly playing STTs when I do play. If it turns out I have a sufficient edge to make it worthwhile grinding them, I might specialise in them.

Livewise this week, the plan is to play tomorrow's monthly game in Malahide, Thursday's monthly in the Fitz, and the weekend Winter festival there.

Congrats to the brother who took down a $30 FO on Ipoker for over $1800, and FTed a $10 FO the next night.

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Nine nine nine

Played the Fitz rebuy yesterday which was great value with effectively over 2K added. The 2K added brought a few good players out of the woodwork: my first table featured Noel Hayes (to my immediate left - we had an interesting natter), Irish Ladies champion Sinead Constant, Kevin Fitzpatrick (who as I've said before I regard as one of the best players in Ireland), and a couple of good young LAGs I've seen around. Anyway, after losing my mandatory first buyin, I got a flyer just before the break when I won a 4 way all in (with JJ).

From there, I just steadily accumulated chips to have 60K by the time there were about 20 left. A couple of lost races saw me clinging on the bubble, and by the time the FT formed I had 3 big blinds. There wasn't much play for anyone at that point: average M was 3, and a massive chipleader was skewing the average to the point that many of us had an M of less than 2. My first shove took down the blinds, my second (aces, called by KQ) more than doubled me up to 70K, and suddenly I'm third in chips. But M still under 4!

It all went in two hands, both pocket 9's. First a shortie shoved utg for half my stack and with blinds and antes meaning I was getting 6 to 4 if nobody else called, it was a standard shove once everyone else folded to my button. I lost the race to AT.

Next hand, 9's in the cutoff, the hyper aggro chipleader raised and I again shoved, this time losing a race to KJo, to exit in 8th for 200 Euro. Better than nothing but a disappointing chance lost. The FT was pretty weak apart from a couple of very capable young guns who knew what they were doing, and the top 2 prizes were over 2K with the added ticket. Example: Fitz regular Frank raises utg+1 to 11K, leaving about 80K behind. At this point he's second in chips. Chipleader shoves on the button, Frank calls with J9o. Up against AK, flop Axx, turn 9, river 9.

At the break I met El Stuntman (who was unlucky to bubble) and Rounders (not his real name). They suggested I accompany them for liquid refreshment and instead of agreeing instantly (the correct line given the villains involved) I had a brain fart and instead opted to stay and eat a few soggy sandwiches. Bad beat.

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Open the bubbly

As a follow on to the last post, I probably should have explained what I meant by bubble factor. Bubble factor is the mathematical recognition of the fact that in most tournament situations, chips lost are more valuable than chips won. For example, it may be that if you have a 10K stack, your tournament equity is $100. If it increases to 11K, your equity goes up to $105, but if it decreases to 9K, your equity shrinks to $90. That means that if you risk 1000 chips on a 50/50, while it seems a fair bet in terms of cEv, in $Ev it's a losing proposition, because half the time you win but only gain $5 in $Ev, compared to a loss of $10 if you lose. So the bubble factor here is 2. For this to be a good bet, you'd have to be getting 2 to 1 (in chips) rather than evens.

This is all based on ICM, which if you don't understand I suggest you Google and read up on until you do. For example, play around with this calculator. Start by putting in a starting stack of 1500 for 10 players and you get the (obvious) result that everyone's equity is 10% at the start of an STT. Now check out what happens if one player stacks another first hand by changing one guy to 3000 and another to 0. The guy who doubles up increases his equity to 18.44%, the guy who loses obviously goes down to 0, and everyone else increases to 10.19%. This shows two things:
(1) Why it's correct to play tight early on and avoid confrontations, particularly if there are loose players willing to play each other. Simply put, you can gain equity with zero risk simply by folding and letting them knock each other out
(2) If you get into an all in here, you will gain less (8.44%) if you win than if you lose (10%). This means calling an allin when you think you're 50/50 is incorrect. The "bubble factor" here is about 1.2 (you lose 1.2 times more equity if you lose an all in than you win if you win one), so to call an allin, you need odds of 1.2 to 1 rather than evens for a 50/50.

Now look at the situation on the bubble. If everyone has an even stack (3750), everyone's $Ev is obviously 25% of the prize pool. If two guys stack off, the winner's equity increases by 13.33%, and the loser loses 25%. So on the bubble in this situation, bubble factor is almost 2, meaning you'd need to think you were a 2 to 1 favourite to call an all in, or be getting 2 to 1 pot odds on a 50/50.

Bubble factors also depend on relative stack sizes. I suggest you play around with the calculator to get a good feel for different situations. This will tell you the correct way to play the bubble. For example, if one guy has a huge stack, say 12K, and the other three only have 1K, then the big stack's bubble factor is negligible, but the other 3 guy's is huge. If they call an allin from the big stack and lose, they lose three times what they gain if they win, so they can only correctly call with a hand that's a 3 to 1 favourite. This means in essence the big stack should be pushing every hand. Even if the others realise what he's doing, they can only call with a big pair (tens or better), since these are the only hand that are a 3 to 1 favourite gainst a random hand. Even AKs is only about 9 to 4 against a random hand.

Obviously as the table gets shorthanded the blinds force you to play more, and you can't just sit there folding because ICM tells you too. The correct strategy is therefore to take advantage of the fact that others have bubble factors too and can't call willy nilly. Again, I suggest you play around with the calculator to get a feel for what you should do in different stack situations. As a general rule:
(1) If you're short on the bubble, push a lot until you're even stacked with at least one other. For example, you should be pushing every hand from the SB when it's folded to you unless the BB is a giant stack who you think will call light
(2) If the stacks are even, you must play tight (your bubble factor is 3!). You should only be calling allins with jacks or better and possibly AK. I say possibly AK because while it's not 3 to 1 against a random hand, people won't be pushing random hands in this situation but will be pushing a lot of weaker aces that you are pretty much a 3 to 1 fvourite aganst.
(3) If you're the big stack with at least twice as much chips as anyone else, you can open push any two cards from the SB and button (exploiting their high bubble factor compared to yours), but you can only call allins with premium hands.

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The least understood concept in tournament poker

Let's imagine you have a rich clueless friend who doesn't understand probability. He shows up at your house every so often offering to flip a coin. If he wins, you give him 1K. If you win, he gives you 2K. Should you take the bet?

The answer is "usually".

Leaving aside moral considerations (like you may not want to take advantage of the poor sap), worries about him welching, or the coin being bent, or other red herrings, there is still sometimes a clear reason not to take this plus EV bet.

Imagine you have an even stupider richer friend who just rang you up and said he'd be round this evening to flip. Because he's stupider, he gives you 5K if you win. If the 1K you're flipping the first guy with is your last 1K, then you shoul turn down the first flip offer.

Why? Because if you lose, you'll be forced to turn down the even better plus EV offer of the second guy.

Here's the maths.

Half the time, you lose the first flip, and you're down 1K. EV -500.

Quarter of the time, you win the first, and lose the second, and you're up 1000. EV +250.

Quarter of the time, you win both to finish up 7K. EV +1750.

So overall this is a plus EV 1500 situation.

What if you reject the first one and accept the second?

Half the time, you lose, and you're down 1K. EV -500.
Half the time you win, and you're up 5K. EV +2500.

Overall this is a plus EV 2000 situation, and therefore preferable to taking both.

OK, so how does this apply to tournament poker? One thing I see a lot of good players (particularly good cash game players) say and do in tournaments is take on every single +cEV situation that presents itself, even the most marginal ones imaginable. This is always correct in cash games (subject to bankroll/variance considerations) but is clearly wrong in a tournament. Even at the start of a tournament, bubble factor is greater than 1, which means that taking a 50/50 when getting evens is mathematically incorrect. The deeper you go into a tournament, the higher bubble factor climbs, to the point that even if you think you're 2 to 1 against someone's range, it may be a mistake to call an allin getting evens.

But above and beyond that, there's a more practical reason for turning down marginal plus EV situations early in tournaments sometimes. If you believe that if you sit tight and wait patiently for long enough, you will almost certainly be presented with 60/40, 70/30 or 80/20 situations, then it's wrong to take even a 55/45. Because if you lose that 55/45, you're out, and won't get to avail of the better situations that would have presented themselves in the future. Furthermore, if you believe you have a massive skill edge, particularly post flop, then you may be missing out on future situations where you're 100% when the money goes in.

A lot of the skill of tournament poker is not just accurately assessing the likely odds compared to those offered by the pot but also intuitively sensing how fast you need to play due to structure and stack size in different tournament situations. In essence, knowing whether you need to be seizing every available +cEV situation (as, for example, when you're short stacked short handed nowhere near any level bubble) or whether you shoul be sitting there rejecting marginally +cEv deals as you patiently wait for much bigger ones.

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Blah those Hilton ssters

Whole weekend was given over to the Bruce festival.

Friday night played the first side event. After shaky start, I finally got a stack together only to lose a pot to have 60K at a time when average was about 18K when I got it all in with queens against KJ and the Hilton sisters found a new way to dog me, this time hitting a straight to the jack.

After that, I was short and in push mode, and eventually lost a classic pair v two overs race.

Came back Saturday for the main event. Lucky there was a 20K starting stack because I couldn't win a pot and just dwindled and dwindled until I was down to 6K. Then QueenJ arrived to deal to my table and singlehandedly transformed my tournament fortunes, as I raced from 6K up to about 80K.

I then made a fold which turned out to be a bad one although after much agonising over it I think it was marginal and probably correct in the specific situation, which was that I raised utg, got flat called behind by a loose but solid player, then Vera who was short shoved for 17K, and the button reshoved for 55K. Button was a young very capable LAG who was routinely folding to my raises and reraises. Given that this was the first time he'd played back at me I had to give him credit for a hand, particularly with Vera the rock all in. I figured the only hand he could be doing this with that I'd be happy to see was jacks, and with the other guy still behind me, decided that with only 6.5K invested in the pot, discretion was the better of valour, there was too high a chance aces or kings were out given the action, and it was more prudent to wait for a better spot rather than risk my newly acquired stack.

Nicky Power who was at the table gave me some awful stick for folding the queens there but did say later he thought it was marginal but he'd call because the kid on the button was a bit of a mover. Went through the hand later with Rob and he said he'd lean towards folding. Rob's style and image is a lot closer to mine than Nicky's would be so good players are less likely to be making moves on us so even though it clearly was wrong in this specific case, overall I'm happy enough with the fold.

In the event, the original caller folded, Vera had AK, and the button JJ. As it happened, Vera hit an ace and a king but I'd have won the monster side pot.

Shortly thereafter, I got moved to a new table and really hit the skids. I was back down to 40K when it was folded to a sb who completed. I raised with pocket 6's and he made what looked like a petulant snap call. My impression of the guy based on a very limited sample admittedly was that he was a typical poor headless aggressive who also seems to be tilting after horribly misplaying the previous hand. Flop came AJ9, he checked, I bet 10K, he quickly called. Turn's another ace and while I'm pretty certain he doesn't have an ace, I decide that since my hand has checkdown value and I'm either way ahead or way behind so checking the hand down is the way to go, I check behind. River's a 7 and suddenly he bets 15K. Nomally that sort of betting action signifies your underpair to the board is well beaten but this time it just looks fishy. I'm struggling to put him on a legitimate hand I'm not losing to that a good player would play this way. The only busted draw out there is Q10, it'd diffcult to see any other hand that could have called the flop that doesn't beat 6's. Possible hands that are beating me are a higher pocket pair (admittedly unlikely), an ace (ditto), a misplayed jack, 9 or 7, or 108. The problem with these hands is they either don't tally with the preflop action and my read on the opponent (aces and pocket pairs), or they don't explain the bet on the river (except for 108, the presence of the aces would surely slow him down). He also doesn't look strong but after a very long dwell I decide I really can't call with just an underpair to the board so I fold. He triumphantly shows Q8 for a busted gutshot. Wp, sir.

While I'm now short, I still have a playable stack and quite fancy my chances of getting the chips back with interest from this guy as he's a real loose cannon. Unfortunately, he blows up before I have a chance to do so, shoving 10's for 60 BB's over a big UTG raise from a tight player.

Anyway, recovered from there to my tournament highpoint, 83.5K overnight. Noni came over to watch and chat and said she'd bring me luck and was as good as her word as I motored back up from 20K. Unfortunately with the blinds at 3/6K and an ante of 1K, here wasn't much time to hang around and I ended up shoving A10s from the button into AQ to almost bubble in 26th. Annoying to come that close but not as disappointing as going deeper only to get sucked out on.

Jumped from that straight into the freeroll and made the fastest start since Drogheda to a tournament. I went from 3K starting stack to 20K in about 4 orbits. From there I grew steadily to 60K until just before the bubble burst when my aces were cracked by KJ. That pushed me back to 40K, now short. Some well timed pushes kept me alive until I lost my first called allin, 8's in the BB against the SB's AJ, to exit in 12th.

Jumped from there straight into the final event and lasted all of one hand. A guy openraising a hefty chunk of pots opened utg, I reraised with QQ, he rereraised, I shoved, he called with AK and won the race. Undone again by those wretched queens.

From there went into cash and managed to get it all in on the flop in the first hand with a pair against two overs, only to be sucked out on for a buyin. A few hours of grinding through almost total card death saw me recover somewhat finish about a buyin up. In the mean time there was a really wild game going on at the next table featuring (at different times) John Keown, Rob, Paul Leckey, Paul Coyle, Pabloh, Donal Norton, and Pete Murphy. At my table Cat was once again running over it to end up over 20 buyins up. Standard for her these days, she did the same the previous day: I think Rob's long term plan when he taught her how to play poker must have been to be able to retire and live off her winnings. Technically she's one of the best cash game players I've ever played with.

Overall, a great weekend and again JP proved why he's the absolute best at what he does. As ever, the real bonus on these occasions is the chance to meet great characters of whom there are so many on the Irish scene. People like Smurph and Noni and that bad bad man Willie Yuletired are always great friendly faces to see and very generous with their support, and it was also great to see so many of the Waterford contingent there. Though in another sense you'd almost prefer not to see them, as there's no doubt that per capita there are more good and great poker players in Waterford than in any other county in the country. Nicky says it's all down to him, that he's brought the lads all along by teaching them how to play in the Blazing Aces, and if it's true, then fair play to him.

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Chasing draws like a daw - an epiphany of sorts

Played the Fitz scalps last Friday and played as bad as I've ever played in my life. Not that I misplayed any particular hand, or played hands that were entirely without merit, but from a macro strategy point of view I played it wrong wrong ladyboy wrong.
Basically, my early exit (just after the break) boiled down to one failing: playing suited aces and connectors. I kept flopping draws, and bled my chips away chasing draws that never came. If you're going to play those hands, you have to be able to shove when you flop a big draw, but for the shove to be correct you must have at least some fold equity if someone else has something, and depending on fold equity in the Fitz is akin to hoping for tolerance of cultural diversity from a bunch of Christian fundies. When I started in the Fitz, I developed a game that was ugly but brutally effective: Nit 101, wait for big hands, bet them strong against stations and get paid, or check call against the bluff maniacs and get paid.
As I steamed home I had a mini epiphany of sorts and asked myself, why on Earth did I ever change a winning formula?
With that in mind, I played the satellite for the Emporium winter fest last night and just sat there patiently waiting for cards. Immediate result as I won a ticket. I was left short early on when I didn't believe a guy had called to fill a gutshot against me but had, but recovered from there to be almost double the average at the start of FT. Long period of card death saw me drift back from 30K to 23K and below average by the time we got 5 handed (three tickets, one money back cash prize). At that stage Tommy Buckley had raced to chiplead with about 35K, Vera had 30K, Ionapaul (I think) had about 20K, and the shortie about 12K. I picked up aces with blinds at 800/1600 and made a standard raise to 4500. Folded round to Tommy in the BB. There's a lot of history between myself and Tommy, I've probably knocked him out of more Fitz tournaments than anyone else to the point where he refers to me as his nemesis and calls me "sneaky bastard" at the tables. I'd already raised his blind a few times or come over the top of his raises and he'd folded hands he'd normally defend with like A5o or QJo saying he knew I was behind because "I don't have the balls to bluff". Anyway, this time he asks how much I have behind, goes into the tank and then announces "ok, let's go, all in". When I snap call he says oh fuck I've seen this one before. He has AK and the aces hold after a sweat with QJ appearing on the board. That more or less wrapped up the ticket for me, with the other 2 going to Vera and Paul, both of whom played very well. Personally I was happy that my return to a more patient style of play worked so well. Yes, it does depend on picking up big hands, but the longer you're prepared to give those big hands a chance to come, the more likely they are to come, and if you'e still willing to find customers even though it's obvious you're only playing big hands, why play anything else?

One other thing that came up in my recent well on Boards is that a few people commented when I appeared on the scene the quietness and stillness and total lack of personality I showed at the table was unusual, and it got me thinking that this not only helped my table image but also helped me maintain focus and concentration at the table. So basically I'm back to being a total antisocial sociopath at the tables for now. That awful awful man Willie Yuletired who I have on good authority is the subject of several restraining orders involving nubile eastern European women did make a good point on the blog recently about playing better when he prepares mentally. That's something I used to do very well but of late I've tended to just fall into a live tournament a bit punch drunk after a day of playing online, so I went through my mental routines on the train in and at the breaks and it definitely helped.
Next up is the Bruce launch festival which I'm really looking forward to. Then the SE winter fest and the Fitz one (which I also qualified for). Still grinding away online: last 2 weeks have been a bit of a struggle on that front.
Also, I'm back in serious training and feeling much the better for it. I did my first speed session on Monday. Norrie doesn't really believe in easing back into things: that lovely taste of vomit in the mouth was back immediately.
The New York ultra is this weekend and it's with a real pang of regret that I won't be running it. That race launched me as an ultra runner when I won it 2 years ago and the memory of being cheered to victory in Central Park still sends a tingle down my spine. Last year I ran it despite not being fully recovered from the World 24's and finished a decent third. I love the race so much I seriously thought about running it this year as I feel reasonably recovered from my latest 24 hour race, but in the end sanity prevailed. I've been invited over for their New Year's 5K, so I'm running that instead. We fly out the 31st and back the 8th so I'll miss the IPC in Galway but c'est la vie. I never run well in Galway anyway.
Still haven't got around to writing my Korea race report, so in the mean time you'll have to make do with this pic showing the local band.

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I run bad, I run good

On Tuesday I played the Westbury in Malahide's monthly game. 20 or so starters, got up from 15K starting stack to about 30K before the cards and the situations dried up on the FT so I ended up bubbling in 6th. Some truly awful players: one guy, as Rob pointed out to me at the break, had discovered at least three new ways to play AK badly.

However, for the absolute pinnacle of bad play, you still can't beat some of the onliners. Here's a hand I witnessed recently in a satellite. 4 limpers, I limp A9s on the cutoff, button min raises, both blinds complete and the limpers all call. Flop comes KQx, checked round to limper just before me who shoves 2xpot, I fold, and the min raiser on the button instacalls with A2o (of course he hits his ace on the river to win).

Later same sat, blinds still low (30/60), utg opens for 850 (over 14 big blinds), utg+1 (the A2o villainfrom the previous hand) calls for half his stack, guy in mid position min raises, button shoves, everybody calls. Flop comes Qxx with two clubs, utg min bets 60 (into a pot of 12K!), the min reraiser shoves, and is called. Some big hands out here, I'm thinking. Utg has KJs for a flush draw, utg+1 has K4o, min reraiser has AJo (ie, nothing but an overcard), button all in is the only one with a legit hand, JJ.

It got even funnier on the FT where there were 6 tickets and one cash prize. With 9 left, there were 2 massive stacks, 2 tiny stacks, and the rest of us were all around the same. The second biggest stack started going all in every hand. The 6th time he did it, he was snap called by the other big stack who now only barely covered him. Hands were 22 and KQo. KQo hit to take the other guy out. Then 2 medium stacks went to war on a QJx board with Q10 and AJ respectively, so the two micro stacks squeaked into the prizes.

Anyway, online update. Finished my first batch of 100 $100 DUs on Bruce with 52/48, which is pretty miserable. I was running at 60% all the way until 77, then had an awful weekend and start of week, to barely breakeven after rake. There's speculation on 2+2 from some of the online pros that the turbo $100 DUs are not beatable by a big enough margin on Ongame to make them worthwhile, so I may either try the 50s there, or stick to Ipoker where they seem softer. I finished another batch of 100 on Ipoker last night and despite also running very bad between Saturday and Tuesday ended with a more satisfactory 59% hit rate. However, this is the first time I've dipped below 60% on Ipoker and I wonder if it's that the fish are cottoning on to more optimal strategy. A lot of the online STT pros reckon it's easier for them to figure it out than a regular STT. For now, I'm sticking with them as my online staple, as they're a low variance reliable way to make money.

Also finished a batch of 100 $5 HU super turbo STTs, partly to see if it was possible to have an edge that beats the rake, partly to practise and improve my HU play. I finished with a record of 54/46 despite a truly appalling start so now I'm trying 100 $10 ones to see if my "system" works at that level. Since they're typically over in 3-5 mins, it could be possible to grind a high hourly rate if you were beating them at a decent level by 3-5%.

On the subject of satellites, I won a package (ticket plus 250 in expenses) to the Fitz Winter festival main event last night on Irish Eyes. Only 1 prize so it was a tense enough headsup battle/bubble, particularly as I was outchipped 5:1 at one point, but the recent HU practise really stood to me and I never felt I was going to lose it unless I got really unlucky.

Also satted into the IO Sunday supersat at first attempt this week. I came through a $2 sat in the afternoon (from whence the above examples) into the $20 evening sat and from there squeaked through to Sunday's game. I hope I can get IO qualification out of the way soon as I've pretty much decided I need to be more sensible and stop buying into big events. The alternative is a lot of sat grinding so the sooner I can get the IO out of the way the sooner I can think about other tournaments I'd like to qualify for.

Finally, today's pic from Korea shows me and Eddie carrying the flag on the last lap.

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SE Monthly 200 - glorified SNG

Played this last night and it only got 18 runners. And with Rob, Cat, StrewelPeter, Ozzy, Noel Hayes and a few other tasty players in attendance, it wasn't exactly a high value tournament.

Frustrating night for me: one of those tournaments where I never got going and won in total, 2 pots. One at the start, one at the end when I shoved A9 v Q10 and held. Then I shoved AJ in the cutoff into AK in the blind and that was the end of it, one of my earliest ever exits.

Not that I can even say I played particularly well. I played one hand where I turned middle pair top kicker plus a massive draw (nut flush and gutshot) very weakly. I know that I need to be pulling the trigger in these spots but I can never seem to bring myself to do it and end up calling away chunks of stack.

Today's Korean shot shows Team Ireland lining up just before the start of the race. From the left, Eddie Gallen, Thomas Maguire and some degenerate.

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Scary hands, scary shots

Played the Fitz EOM. Got off to a great start, early rush of cards, up to 11K from 7500 starting. After that, I barely won a pot.

One amusing hand pretty much summed up the night. A guy who was limping almost every pot linped utg. I raised with AQ utg+1. BB who didn't seem to have a fold pre button also called. Flop came K64, checked to me, so I cbet. They both call so now I'm pretty much done with the hand. 8 on the turn, checked around. 2 on the river, BB bets biggish, other guy calls, I fold. BB has A2o, other guy J8o.

Later on, same guy who was BB in that hand limped from mid position, I raise with QQ, he calls. Flop AAK, he checks, I check behind figuring I'm only getting called by an A or a K here and if he's behind he has very little chance of catching up. 6 on the turn, check check. 3 on the river bringing third diamond to the board, he bets half pot, I call, and he announces flush and turns over 74.

My exit hand was a KK shove into AT, A first card out. I think the last 5 times I've shoved KK I've been sucked out on (including my exit hand at the WSOP main event), maybe I need to take it off my list of hands worth shoving with.

Stuck around for a while to watch Rob (who got gayed, set over set) after playing really well, and to chat with John O'Shea, who is a very interesting guy to chat too, very likeable.

Playing the SE tomorrow.

Meanwhile, I got some photos from Korea courtesy of Eddie Gallen.

First, having a few drinks with our best friends, the Spanish, a couple of days before the race...

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