Last Vegas? (part 2)

A short while after I installed myself in an armchair in the Jockey Club condo and started clicking the Like button on Facebook and the Favourite button on Twitter (believe it or not, it does actually help to start easing the pain that other players and people back home take the time to send messages of commiseration, and I greatly appreciate these messages), the door unexpectedly opens and Jason appears, pain visible on his face as he attempts to come to terms with what just happened to him and his 2013 WSOP Main event dream.

He had gone back to a stack almost three times the average, and seen it disappear in a few hours in a series of coolers and setups. No matter how good you are (and nobody who knows anything about poker would question how good Jason is), these things unfortunately happen. You just hope that when they do it won't be in the biggest tourney in the world.

One of the things I learned as a runner is that when you injure yourself, your body does almost all the repairs while you sleep (which explains why most elite distance runners sleep 12 to 14 hours a day). I suspect the same is true of the psychic damage poker inflicts: most of the top poker players I know sleep far more than a "normal" person. And it seems our first impulse after a big bustout is to sleep it off. By the time the only Firm member still in the Main, Daragh Davey, arrived back, myself and Jason were both sound asleep, and by the time he went back for day 4 not far from the bubble, we still were. Not for the first time, I lost out to Jason, the 13 hours it took me to sleep it off paling by comparison with the full 24 hours it took him to emerge from the bed.

I headed back to the Rio one last time to rail Daragh. I got there in time to see him almost double up with tens v aq, at which point he seemed in a great position to move on. By his own account he had run well to that point, but unfortunately it turned against him when he lost his first two big pots all tourney. He then went card dead at the wrong time and as he drifted back to the kind of stack I started day 3 with. I had my fingers crossed he would be more fortunate than I had been, but unfortunately his end was similar. He had drifted back even further when he found a good spot with AQ. Well, it would have been a good spot if he hadn't run into AK, and the flop hadn't come king rag rag.

When I decided to get involved in staking almost 2 years ago, I cast my mind around the players I knew in Ireland for a preferred candidate. Daragh had quite a low profile at the time, most people would probably have gone with someone flashier, but I quickly decided I wanted him to be the first person I fully staked in mtts despite him having no big live results yet, and not being a big online winner. My decision was based in part on his game, but much more so on his temperament, discipline and work ethic. There are differing views on what makes a likely winner in poker (a theme I intend to return to in another blog in the near future) but for me these are the top 3 for proper long term success.

While I was railing Daragh, I was joined on the rail by one of the hidden gems of Irish poker, Bobby Willis. Bobby is the loveliest gentleman I've met through poker. He didn't know Daragh but as we watched he asked me what age he was. When I told him, Bobby remarked that Daragh is very mature for his age, which is certainly true. Although I no longer stake him I have spent a lot of time with him on trips away and if our relationship sometimes takes on a father-son dimension, Daragh is very much the strict disciplinarian father!

The payout room at the WSOP can resemble a sort of Hellish waiting room of poker death, as players who have just busted the main queue to go through the necessary procedures to get paid. Any room filled with people who have just had their dreams of $8 million crushed is not going to be a happy room, so the lady who processed Daragh was quite surprised by his sunny demeanour, remarking he was the happiest looking person she had seen all day. All the weirder when you consider Daragh's response to good news is generally the scowl of a man who has just been told his dog died.

I stayed off the social media for a while after my exit, as experience suggests poker players can get embarrassingly emo in this spot. I call it post Vegas tiltdown. Usually it just takes the form of "God I hate Vegas can't wait to leave this hole" type tweets, with a bit of variety being provided by Tatjana Pasalic complaining about guys in the Rio needing deodorant rather than the potato crisps they gave us every day. Most entertaining tiltdown this year came courtesy of Shane "Shaniac" Schleger, who started retweeting hundreds of old tweets that included stock poker phrases like "happy with how I played" and "old guy at my table". A few of my old tweets resurfaced (though in my defence, I would like to point out my contribution to the "old guy at my table" cliche stockpile was a tweet about myself). Having hundreds of seemingly inane old tweets pop up on his followers feeds sent quite a few of them into a tilt tizzy and had them threatening to unfollow him, but I thought it was at once both hilarious and illuminating, proving just how much of poker communication uses the same stock phrases.

At the end of every Vegas, I look back and review to see what I can learn, and possibly do differently next time. Looking back this time I find it harder to identify stuff I would change. I was happy with my preparation. I was careful not to overplay and went into the main event relaxed and focused. I felt I played very well and can't identify any major mistakes. I paid careful attention to what I ate and drink (I stayed dry this year), and made sure I got enough sleep and some exercise. I honestly feel like I gave it my best shot, but lacked the needed run good. The fact that I built a stack in the main event with very little help from the deck should be comforting, but to be totally honest, for just this one tournament, I'd prefer to play worse but run better if it meant a cash. The main is so big that even a min cash can make your Vegas (after the bubble burst, Daragh pointed out that the min cash was his biggest ever live score).

When I first came to Vegas, I saw the crew of Irish players there as the elite of the game back home. Similar to when I went to world championships as a runner, the assumption was that everyone who was there deserved to be because they were one of the top performers in Ireland. Over the years since, I've come to realise this isn't strictly true. The WSOP might be the nearest thing poker has to an Olympics, but there are some subtle differences. While most of the top Irish players do make the trek to play poker in a draughty warehouse in the desert every year, a few choose to sit it out. A few who are there are riding a heater that won't last and won't be back. And at least a few are on their way out: I noted in this blog that every year there are a few players having their last ever Vegas (without realising it).

This year I couldn't help wonder if I might be one of the players in their Last Vegas. Barring some kind of major deterioration of my mental faculties over the next 12 months, I fully expect to be in shape next June both financially and mentally to come back. What's less clear is if I will want to. I'd be a lot richer if I never set foot in Vegas. For 6 years I've come and taken a shot here every summer. That no longer seems as wise or attractive as it did once. When I look at the year Jude Ainsworth is having, apart from giving him massive credit, I can't help but wonder how much of it is down to the fact that he has barely played live this year and focussed entirely on the online grind. And that leads me to wonder how much better off I would if I followed that example.

Talking to Jason and Daragh after, there was general agreement that if we do come back next year, we will Big Mick it (a reference to Mick's method of showing up the weekend before a main, and playing the last side or two and the main). A shorter Vegas campaign is definitely conducive to avoiding burnout in the desert, and speeding up recovery time. In previous years I've struggled for a while with post Vegas blues, but this year I arrived home raring to get back to the online grind. Maybe I'm getting better at shaking off disappointment, but I do think the shorter more selective campaign helped. Going forward the lesson is the days when I trot myself for every live event and festival and play everything I possibly can are over. I need to be a lot more selective to avoid feeling the kind of burnout I have in the past at the end of a couple of weeks playing live.

It helps that I seemed to get straight back into the groove online, reeling off 5 winning days on the bounce. As someone who plays mtts almost exclusively, I'm always going to have more losing days than winning ones, so 5 winning days back to back is pretty rare in my world.

Next up is Galway. I was lucky enough to be selected for the Irish team for the Ireland v England headsup event, along with 15 others (including Daragh), which should be a bit of craic. Headsup stts were my online staple for a while but that's a couple of years ago, so I've been revising as preparation and played a few online. I was crushing these so Lappin offered to provide stiffer opposition one night. Our "match" went on for several hours and I squeaked a 3-2 win, which was more than acceptable.

I'm travelling down on Monday and coming back afterwards. As great as the full schedule looks, I don't want to commit to more than 2 full weeks of live poker, but I will be back at some stage during UKIPT main event week to play that.

Finally, big congrats are in order for two of my friends, Dermot Blain and Ben Jenkins, who were named as UKIPT Ambassadors by Full Tilt. It's hard to imagine two guys more suited to an ambassadorial role in poker. In a world not short on people with a flair for self publicity, both allow their results to do that talking. It's fair to say Mrs. Doke hasn't been very impressed by many of the poker players she has met down the years, but every time I return from a trip she asks if I met that "nice mannerly English kid", a reference to Ben who she only met once (a few years ago at a tournament in Slovenia). Well played Full Tilt.

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Last Vegas? (part 1)

Although we had bricked all our side events, myself and my two Firm mates Daragh and Jason went into the main event feeling pretty optimistic. Although we all know how to play the faster events, like most players we believe our edges to be considerably bigger in slower better structured events, and the WSOP main event is the best structured live tournament there is. We all understand the nature of variance and know that when you are on a bad run all you can do is concentrate on playing your best and not think about how you are running. I reminded myself that I had only played 5 slow structured live events this year, and had gone deep in three of them (the last three UKIPT main events). Also I had been very careful not to overplay and in fact took more days off in my three weeks in Vegas than in my entire career to that point, so I went into the main feeling rested and focussed.

Day 1

First three levels were quite frustrating as I had a great table (one good German pro, two decent American amateurs, and 6 weak amateurs) but couldn't get anything going. You pretty much had to make hands against the amateurs (three of whom were bad loose aggro meaning they didn't fold much), something I failed to do in the first 6 hours, meaning I went to dinner with 23k (and would have been 17k if I hadn't hero called with 99 on a AJ567 runout). First 6 hours were all about keeping disciplined and patient and not spewing through frustration. Marathon not a sprint etc.

After dinner I finally made two hands (aces getting two streets on a K44 board, and AT making a house and getting called down by an unbeliever with king high, I overbet river thinking he would see it as more bluffy). That got me to 39k. I was card dead again then for a few hours and drifted back to 32k but had a great last hour (without cards) as I cashed in my tight image at a time when all the amateurs had clearly locked up (they were openly talking about how much they wanted to make day 2). Table had gotten tougher with the arrival of a decent London based online pro, and an American online pro, so I was pretty happy to bag up 48k (average would be somewhere around 40k).

So, gruelling day one with very little help from the deck but acceptable outcome, and I was pretty happy with how I played.

Between day 1 and day 2 my daughter arrived into town with some friends. She is spending the summer in Santa Cruz and they drove over for a couple of days. It was great to see her and get my mind off poker for the rest day: Fiona is a real livewire and great craic to be around.

Day 2

I made a quick start, getting up to 78k in the first level. 8 frustrating hours of card death and getting snapped off when light saw me drop back to 35k. I rallied in the last level to 50k before getting the full double to over 100k AK v AQ all in pre. Moved up to 130k with 45 mins left, but then had to fold tens twice on nine high boards (pretty sure I was correct both times), and was down to 80k when I lost a 75k flip (ak v tens). That put me back down to 45k. Picked up a little at the end to finish with 55k. Obviously felt pretty disappointed at the end given I had 130k 45 mins earlier, and would have finished on 130k had I won the flip, but again I was happy with how I played.

Day 3

I was totally card dead in the first level and tread water by stealing blinds. The only semi decent pot I won was a successful river bluff.

That meant I came back with 27 big blinds after the first break. In the small blind I was dealt tens (my bogey hand of this tournament: I was dealt it three times and was up against it in a race once, and lost over 200k total in the 4 pots).  In this spot, and with 27 big blinds, tens is strong enough to want to get all in before the flop. It's too strong (and too many chips) to just shove over his raise, as this will just fold out most of the hands that I crush such as smaller pairs. So I 3bet to 11k. He instashoves. I'm not loving it now as I think I'm now racing most of the time, but I obviously can't fold getting over 6 to 4 on the call, so my chips are in almost as quick as his. I'm relieved to see AJ, which while not a hand my tens crush still means that in 57 of 100 universes I double up and stay alive.

Unfortunately this is one of those other 43 universes where instead I'm shaking his hand and walking away. The window card is a safe rag, but when the dealer spreads the flop an ace and a jack appear.  A king on the turn means I pick up a picture card friend (in addition to a ten, a queen on the river will keep me alive), but the river is a rag and I'm walking through the Rio, out the front door and back towards the Jockey Club in a bit of a daze.

Tournament poker is a cruel game at times, and one that forces you to flip for large amounts of money (or to be more precise equity). Late on day 2 I had lost my only other flip of the tournament (a 75k pot), so I was 0/2 in flips. In WSOP tourneys you get 3 times the buyin in chips, so my two lost flips were for approximately $60,000 in equity. You can't think in these terms in running (otherwise you might get gun shy, afraid to stick your chips in when you're supposed to). All you can do is cross your fingers and hope to win those crucial flips.

As I got into the elevator back in the Jockey Club, a soul singer was singing "After the dream has gone". The dream was indeed gone, for another year at least.

(Part 2 covering where to from here to follow)

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Bricks in the Soft loft

My second bracelet event lasted a bit longer than the first but suffered a similar arc and ultimate result. Very soft table (although it did get progressively tougher with each elimination) and I pretty much cruised from 4500 to 9k.

Turning point was after I raise aces utg, the big blind defends playing 50k. That's not a typo: he had already eliminated ten people and had more than half the chips at the table having stuck to a strategy of playing almost every hand. He check called two streets on a jack high board and then led the river (an innocuous looking 3). I called to be shown a rivered set. He said he was intending to bluff the river (and I obviously intended to call) so if he doesn't ping his 2 outer I have 12k instead of 6k.

After that I didn't win a single pot. I was card dead for the last level before antes so ended up folding every hand for an hour. As I tweeted at the time, ten handed poker with no antes and that kind of sex is a bit like 80 year olds having sex: you can try to be creative but it probably won't end well. You have to stay disciplined in these spots and continue to play optimally and hope that it will ultimately be rewarded with the double up.

I was hoping my apparent tightness folding 83o for an hour would translate into fold equity on my reshoves once the antes started. Two hands into the antes I took an obvious reshove spot after the guy playing nearly every hand opened. Unfortunately my Aj in the cutoff ran into Ak on the button and didn't get there.

In Sunday's 1k I again chipped up early until I lost a big one with top 2 on the flop versus bottom set. I rebuilt but then lost a flip with tens v a shorty kq. That left me short. I survived for a few hours by shipping slightly more than once an orbit and not getting called. When I finally did get called I was in a good spot to get right back into it if my kq could hold against kt. Unfortunately it couldn't.

I was feeling way too sorry for myself the following morning for it to be a good idea to play the $2500 so I skipped it. Will therefore be refunding everyone that bought a piece of my side event action that portion (including markup obv). I also skipped the 5k on similar grounds so at least my side event investors can be assured they will be getting over half their money back. Hopefully more if I can get a result in the last tournament in the package, Friday's $1500, which I will definitely play.

I normally shake these things off pretty quickly so the fact I wasn't back to my usual chipper self when I got up the next morning is noteworthy. On the positive side, I am at least lasting progressively longer each time and the beats are getting progressively less improbable (one outer in the first event, two outer in the second and three outer in the third) so who knows by the end I might even get past a bubble before losing a flip. I'm very happy with how I'm playing, in particular I think I am working out opponent tendencies very quickly and picking up on physical stuff, so even if I don't manage to get a result in the fast structured events, I will be confident going into the best structured event in the world, the WSOP main event.

After busting the 1k I late regged a mega sat to find myself sitting beside a very attractive Polish American lady and across the table from a more scowly Daragh Davey. After she lost a pot to Daragh she made the whole table laugh by announcing "I know you're trying to be all serious but I just want to buy you ice cream or something cos you look so sad".



Hopefully the Firm (who as Big Mick G tweeted run the risk of being renamed the Soft if we keep bricking) will have something more to smile about than ice cream by the time the main event kicks off at the end of the week. Collectively we are something like 0/20 so far in Vegas this year so it would nice to break the sequence of bricks before the main.

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